Rolling returns do not go by the calendar year; instead, they look at every one-year, or every three-year, every five-year, etc. time period beginning each month anew over the historical time frame selected. The chart goes back to 1973 to show you stock performance for the worst one-year rolling time frame (the twelve months ending in February 2009 that delivered a -43 percent return) to the best one-year index return (the twelve months ending in June 1983 that delivered a 61 percent return). If you take a glance at this, you’ll see that of the last 21 election years there have been only 3 years where the S&P 500 index had a negative return during an election year. That tells you a lot about presidential elections and stock performance. This article offers a deep dive look at bear market statistics, how often they occur, how long they last, and how quickly the market typically recovers. There is little consensus as to when stocks were first traded. Some see the key event as the Dutch East India Company’s founding in 1602. What we do know is that the American Stock Exchange merged with the National Association of Securities Dealers in 1971 creating The Nasdaq-Amex Market Group, or NASDAQ. When the NASDAQ began trading on February 8, 1971, it became the world’s first electronic stock market, trading for over 2,500 securities. We also know that over time, if you hang in long enough, you will always see the positive years outweigh the negative years.
