Alternate name: Economic expansion
In the United States, periods of economic recovery and recession are measured by the National Bureau of Economic Research’s (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee, a group of economists who analyze data to mark the beginning and end of recessions. It looks at several factors, such as personal income, employment, personal consumption expenditures, and industrial production. NBER data goes back to 1857. It records the dates for when the economy peaks and troughs, as well as the periods between troughs and peaks, showing any recovery. For example, NBER data shows that the U.S. was at a peak in February 2020. The stock market hit highs and the unemployment rate was at a low. Then the 2020 recession set in for two months. The trough occurred in April 2020; the stock market was down and the unemployment rate was high. After the recession, the U.S. entered the phase of economic recovery. Employment increased, consumers began spending more money, and the stock market recovered its losses. Before 2020, there was another economic recovery in the U.S. that happened following the Great Recession of 2007-2009. A trough occurred in June 2009, marking the end of a recession caused by the financial crisis. The economic recovery that followed continued for almost 11 years before hitting its peak in February 2020.
How Does an Economic Recovery Work?
Many economists have worked on measuring and understanding the business cycle, which includes economic recoveries. One of the modern ideas of business cycles is based on work done by economist and author Joseph Alois Schumpeter. Before he died in 1950, Schumpeter published his book “Business Cycles” in which he explained this view: The economy builds up to a peak, in which everything becomes overheated. Workers are paid beyond their productivity and investments become increasingly speculative. Eventually, a crisis event occurs, marking the start of a recession. For example, in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic is what caused unemployment to increase and spending to decrease in the U.S. Back in 2007, the event that set off the Great Recession was the financial crisis. During recessions, the economy declines until it reaches a trough. Only after that trough is an economic recovery seen.
What It Means for Individual Investors
Most businesses do better when the economy is expanding. After all, if there are more jobs and higher incomes available, people will probably have more money to spend on goods and services. Some businesses may be more successful during an economic contraction. They may actually benefit from lower labor costs and lower prices, the latter potentially driving an increase in sales from customers who could not afford their products before the recession. Investments that do better when the economy heats up but worse when the economy slows are known as cyclical investments. Most consumer and retail businesses fall into this category, along with travel companies, automakers, appliance manufacturers, and homebuilders. Investors may find success with these types of investments during an economic recovery. The opposite of a cyclical investment is a defensive investment, which often does better during a recession. This includes makers and sellers of food, tobacco, alcohol, and personal care items. It also includes such things as education and training, because people who are unemployed may use that time to prepare for a better job. Interest rates are also affected by recessions and economic recoveries. In general, the Federal Reserve works to reduce interest rates during a recession and increase interest rates during an economic recovery. For example, interest rates on high-yield savings accounts or certificates of deposit (CDs) may be low during a recession but may rise during an economic recovery, making them safer places to deposit money.
